Market Rankings
Q3 2024 Average Cap Rate
Each month we add thousands of data points. For this past quarter, 2 markets had an average cap rate of below 5.3% while 4 markets were above 8%. Cap rates appear to be on a slight downward trend with swings affected by raising interest rates, tightening lending requirements and weaker demand. The average was 6.63% for Q4 2024.
Q3 2024 Commercial Sales/100k population
Rather that look a just the total number of sales that occur in a market, in order to get a comparable picture, we took the total commercial sales and divided it by the population to get a better picture of what markets are hot and which ones are soft.
Market Summary: Cap Rates down slightly during the 3rd quarter 2024
The data indicates a decrease of 35 basis point during the 3rd quarter 2024. While the trend has been up for 8 of the past 10 quarters, it has been down 2 of the past 3 quarters.
For class For Class A properties, between Q2 24 and Q3 24 apartments were -34 bps, Industrial -20 pbs, retail -28 bps and office -4 bps. There were differences between property types with, for example, the cap rate Q3 2024 for Class A suburban apartments at 5.87% compared to 7.55% for senior housing. Class A Warehouse space 6.27% outpaced flex space 7.67%. Suburban offices (7.09%) and medical offices (7.1%) performed better than CBD office space (7.87%).
Nationwide, total commercial sales volume was down -11.3% from the prior quarter and the average days on the market increase by 15%. Interest rate drops and the stabilizing election results may be calming investors’ concerns. Sellers with upcoming loan maturities, however, may add to market uncertainty.
In order to get a clearer picture of the metro areas, we ranked the areas by average cap rate and sales volume per population. Combining the rankings gives us a picture of market strength (lower cap rate) and momentum (highest sales volume). Some markets appear to have high quality sales with strong tenants but otherwise a low volume of activity. The combined rankings gives us a slightly better snapshot of the overall market strength.